The race for Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched House battles of 2026. After a narrow victory in 2024, Republican incumbent Derrick Van Orden now finds himself in a Toss Up race according to the authoritative Cook Political Report. What this really means is that Democrats have a legitimate shot at flipping this traditionally Republican seat.
Van Orden's Struggles
Van Orden, a former Navy SEAL, has been dogged by controversies since taking office in 2023. His presence at the January 6th Capitol riots, while he claimed he was there only as an observer, has made him a lightning rod for criticism. And in 2024, he ran significantly behind former President Donald Trump's margin in the district, winning by less than 3 points while Trump carried it by 7.
A Moderate Challenger Emerges
Democrats are hoping to capitalize on Van Orden's vulnerabilities by fielding a strong moderate challenger in 2026. Rebecca Cooke, a 37-year-old small business owner, nearly defeated Van Orden in 2024 and has already launched her 2026 campaign. Cooke's early fundraising success, including $1 million raised in the first three weeks, has Democrats bullish on their chances.
The Bigger Picture
If Democrats want to regain control of the House in 2026, flipping seats like Wisconsin's 3rd will be crucial. And with Trump likely off the ballot, the political environment could be more favorable for Democrats in this purple district. While Van Orden remains a formidable incumbent, the Cook rating shift suggests his grip on the seat may be slipping. This race is shaping up to be a top battleground in the fight for control of Congress.